1) What is the science of Climate Change ?

Fortunately in 1988, the international community established the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change - IPCC www.ipcc.ch to do regular expert peer-reviewed and government-reviewed assesments of the state of Climate Change.  These come out about every 5 years, with the much-publicised Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) coming out in 4 stages throughout 2007.

 

Some conclusions quoted from this 2007 assessment are:

 

• Very high confidence that the global average net effect of human activities since 1750 has been one of warming.

 

• Changes in arctic temperatures and ice, widespread changes in precipitation amounts, ocean salinity, wind patterns and aspects of extreme weather including droughts, heavy precipitation, heat waves and the intensity of tropical cyclones.

 

• Significant loss of biodiversity is projected to occur by 2020 in some ecologically-rich sites including the Great Barrier Reef and Queensland Wet Tropics. Other sites at risk include Kakadu wetlands, southwest Australia, sub-Antarctic islands and the alpine areas.

 

• Production from agriculture and forestry by 2030 is projected to decline over much of southern and eastern Australia.

 

 

The Stern Review www.hm-treasury.gov.uk/media/8AC/F7/Executive_Summary.pdf comissioned by the UK Government has taken this into the economic arena.  Check out Figure 2 (p5) for the consequences of even small temperature increases.  Throughout the report, Stern argues for stabilising the world greenhouse gas level at 550 parts per million.  On Figure 2, this corresponds to 3 degrees of warming and even at this level, after we have made all our efforts, we still run the risk of widespread water shortages, rainforest collapse, extreme weather events and more !  If you read nothing else, please click through and look at Figure 2 (p5) !

 

Some of Stern's quoted conclusions are:

 

• Our actions over the coming few decades could create risks of major disruption to economic and social activity, later in this century and in the next, on a scale similar to those associated with the great wars and the economic depression of the first half of the 20th century. And it will be difficult or impossible to reverse these changes.

 

• Rich countries taking responsibility for emissions reductions of 60-80% from 1990 levels by 2050.

 

• Stabilisation of greenhouse gases at levels of 500-550ppm CO2e will cost, on average, around 1% of annual global GDP by 2050. This is significant, but is fully consistent with continued growth and development, in contrast with unabated climate change, which will eventually pose significant threats to growth.

 

2) How is Australia going ?

Australia is not going very well.  We are the worst emitter at 26.8 tonnes per person (2004).  Here is the list ....

Country	Emissions per person (tonnes CO2e)
Australia	26.8
Canada	25.8
United States	21.5
Ireland	17.2
Iceland	16.9
Belgium	14.2
Netherlands	13.5
Russia	12.7
New Zealand	12.7
Denmark	12.4
Greece	12.4
Finland	12.1
Germany	11.9
United Kingdom	11.0
Japan	9.9
Spain	9.9
Austria	9.1
France	8.5
Italy	8.2
Hungary	7.8
Portugal	7.8
Norway	6.3
Sweden	5.9
Romania	5.4

These figures are taken from actual 2004 UNFCCC returns http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/2006/sbi/eng/26.pdf divided by 2004 population www.census.gov/ipc/www/idbrank.html . 

And our emissions are growing faster than most other developed countries !  As a special exception, our Kyoto target is for an 8% increase on 1990, which we might just make.  But there is a catch.  Kyoto's base year of 1990 was our peak land-clearing year which gave us a head-start.  Looking at the UNFCCC return (excluding land use & forestry), our underlying emissions have increased by 25.1% since 1990, one of the worst results in a period when many industrialised countries are starting to make real reductions !  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

CO₂ 1.85kg/m³ @ 19^OC (1.98kg/m³ @ 0^OC www.uigi.com/carbondioxide.html)

 

3) How can we help as individuals ?

A good place to start is the Cool It site of Australian Greenhouse Office www.greenhouse.gov.au/gwci/index.html .

 

Also consider joining Hills against Global Warming to help get some momentum going in Sydney's northwest !

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